Comparing the COVID-19 pandemic in space and over time in Europe, using numbers of deaths, crude rates and adjusted mortality trend ratios.

Comparison of COVID-19 trends in space and over time is essential to monitor the pandemic and to indirectly evaluate non-pharmacological policies aimed at reducing the burden of disease. Given the specific age- and sex- distribution of COVID-19 mortality, the underlying sex- and age-distribution of populations need to be accounted for. The aim of this paper is to present a method for monitoring trends of COVID-19 using adjusted mortality trend ratios (AMTRs). Age- and sex-mortality distribution of a reference European population (N = 14,086) was used to calculate age- and sex-specific mortality rates. These were applied to each country to calculate the expected deaths. Adjusted Mortality Trend Ratios (AMTRs) with 95% confidence intervals (C.I.) were calculated for selected European countries on a daily basis from 17th March 2020 to 29th April 2021 by dividing observed cumulative mortality, by expected mortality, times the crude mortality of the reference population. These estimated the sex- and age-adjusted mortality for COVID-19 per million population in each country. United Kingdom experienced the highest number of COVID-19 related death in Europe. Crude mortality rates were highest Hungary, Czech Republic, and Luxembourg. Accounting for the age-and sex-distribution of the underlying populations with AMTRs for each European country, four different patterns were identified: countries which experienced a two-wave pandemic, countries with almost undetectable first wave, but with either a fast or a slow increase of mortality during the second wave; countries with consistently low rates throughout the period. AMTRs were highest in Eastern European countries (Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland). Our methods allow a fair comparison of mortality in space and over time. These might be of use to indirectly estimating the efficacy of non-pharmacological health policies. The authors urge the World Health Organisation, given the absence of age and sex-specific mortality data for direct standardisation, to adopt this method to estimate the comparative mortality from COVID-19 pandemic worldwide.

Review of infective dose, routes of transmission and outcome of COVID-19 caused by the SARS-COV-2: comparison with other respiratory viruses.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is pandemic. Prevention and control strategies require an improved understanding of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics. We did a rapid review of the literature on SARS-CoV-2 viral dynamics with a focus on infective dose. We sought comparisons of SARS-CoV-2 with other respiratory viruses including SARS-CoV-1 and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. We examined laboratory animal and human studies. The literature on infective dose, transmission and routes of exposure was limited specially in humans, and varying endpoints were used for measurement of infection. Despite variability in animal studies, there was some evidence that increased dose at exposure correlated with higher viral load clinically, and severe symptoms. Higher viral load measures did not reflect coronavirus disease 2019 severity. Aerosol transmission seemed to raise the risk of more severe respiratory complications in animals. An accurate quantitative estimate of the infective dose of SARS-CoV-2 in humans is not currently feasible and needs further research. Our review suggests that it is small, perhaps about 100 particles. Further work is also required on the relationship between routes of transmission, infective dose, co-infection and outcomes.

Vaccines for COVID-19: learning from ten phase II trials to inform clinical and public health vaccination programmes.

Public health professionals and clinicians, in many countries, are immersed in the ongoing and upcoming vaccination programmes for COVID-19. Published information from vaccine trials is complex. There are important and helpful insights about the nature of the available and forthcoming vaccines, immune responses and side-effects from phase II trials. We have systematically summarised information from 10 such trials on the nature of the vaccines, exclusions from the trials, immunological effects and side-effects. Some important information within these trial reports is not available in the phase III trial articles, so a complete picture requires examination of phase II and phase III trials for each vaccine. We recommend our systematic approach for the examination of other upcoming COVID-19 vaccine phase II and III trials.

Migration, ethnicity, racism and the COVID-19 pandemic: A conference marking the launch of a new Global Society.

The inaugural conference of the Global Society on Migration, Ethnicity, Race and Health COVID-19 examined the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on migrants and ethnic minorities and the role of racism. Migrants everywhere have faced tightening immigration restrictions, more obstacles to healthcare, increased racism and worsening poverty. Higher COVID-19 mortality rates have been otbserved in ethnic/racial minorities in the United Kingdom and the United States. Structural racism has been implicated, operating, for example, through more crowded living conditions and higher-risk occupations. In Brazil, good data are lacking but a seroprevalence survey suggested higher rates of infection among ethnic minorities and slum dwellers. Considerable disruption of services for migrants at the border with Venezuela have occurred. National policy responses to protect vulnerable groups have been lacking. In Australia, with strict COVID-19 control metrtrun 0asures and inclusive policies, there have been few cases and deaths reported in Indigenous communities so far. In most countries, the lack of COVID-19 data by ethnic/racial group or migrant status should be addressed. Otherwise, racism and consequent inequalities will go undetected.

Population perspective comparing COVID-19 to all and common causes of death during the first wave of the pandemic in seven European countries.

OBJECTIVES: Mortality statistics on the COVID-19 pandemic have led to widespread concern and fear. To contextualise these data, we compared mortality related to COVID-19 during the first wave of the pandemic across seven countries in Europe with all and common causes of death, stratifying by age and sex. We also calculated deaths as a proportion of the population by age and sex. STUDY DESIGN: Analysis of population mortality data. METHODS: COVID-19 related mortality and population statistics from seven European countries were extracted: England and Wales, Italy, Germany, Spain, France, Portugal and Netherlands. Available data spanned 14-16 weeks since the first recorded deaths in each country, except Spain, where only comparable stratified data over an 8-week time period was available. The Global Burden of Disease database provided data on all deaths and those from pneumonia, cardiovascular disease combining ischaemic heart disease and stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cancer, road traffic accidents and dementia in 2017. RESULTS: Deaths related to COVID-19, while modest overall, varied considerably by age. Deaths as a percentage of all cause deaths during the time period under study ranged from <0.01% in children in Germany, Portugal and Netherlands, to as high as 41.65% for men aged over 80 years in England and Wales. The percentage of the population who died from COVID-19 was less than 0.2% in every age group under the age of 80. In each country, over the age of 80, these proportions were: England and Wales 1.27% males, 0.87% females; Italy 0.6% males, 0.38% females; Germany 0.13% males, 0.09% females; France 0.39% males, 0.2% females; Portugal 0.2% males, 0.15% females; and Netherlands 0.6% males, 0.4% females. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality rates from COVID-19 during the first wave of the pandemic were low including when compared to other common causes of death and are likely to decline further while control measures are maintained, treatments improve and vaccination is instituted. These data may help people to contextualise their risk and for decision-making by policymakers.

Raising ethnicity recording in NHS Lothian from 3% to 90% in 3 years: processes and analysis of data from Accidents and Emergencies.

BACKGROUND: The disproportionate burden of COVID-19 on ethnic minority populations has recently highlighted the necessity of maintaining accessible, routinely collected, ethnicity data within healthcare services. Despite 25 years of supportive legislation and policy in the UK, ethnicity data recording remains inconsistent, which has hindered needs assessment, evaluation and decision-making. We describe efforts to improve the completeness, quality and usage of ethnicity data within our regional health board, NHS Lothian. METHODS: The Ethnicity Coding Task Force was established with the aim of increasing ethnicity recording within NHS Lothian secondary care services from 3 to 90% over 3 years. We subsequently analysed these data specifically focusing on Accident and Emergency (A&E) use by ethnic group. RESULTS: We achieved 91%, 85% and 93% completeness of recording across inpatients, outpatients and A&E, respectively. Analysis of A&E data found a mixed pattern of attendance amongst ethnic minority populations and did not support the commonly perceived relationship between lower GP registration and higher A&E use within this population. CONCLUSIONS: We identified a successful approach to increase ethnicity recording within a regional health board, which could potentially be useful in other settings, and demonstrated the utility of these data in informing assessment of healthcare delivery and future planning.

COVID-19 zugzwang: Potential public health moves towards population (herd) immunity.

COVID-19 is pandemic, and likely to become endemic, possibly returning with greater virulence. Outlining potential public health actions, including hygiene measures, social distancing and face masks, and realistic future advances, this paper focuses on the consequences of taking no public health action; the role of natural changes such as weather; the adverse public health consequences of lockdowns; testing for surveillance and research purposes; testing to identify cases and contacts, including the role of antibody tests; the public health value of treatments; mobilising people who have recovered; population (a synonym for herd) immunity through vaccination and through natural infection; involving the entire population; and the need for public debate. Until there is a vaccine, population immunity is going to occur only from infection. Allowing infection in those at very low risk while making it safer for them and wider society needs consideration but is currently taboo. About 40-50% population immunity is sufficient to suppress an infection with a reproduction number of about 1 or slightly more. Importantly, in children and young people COVID-19 is currently rarely fatal, roughly comparable with influenza. The balance between the damage caused by COVID-19 and that caused by lockdowns needs quantifying. Public debate, including on population immunity, informed by epidemiological data, is now urgent.